Will the curse of El Pupas finally be lifted?
It almost feels as though Diego Simeone has a personal crusade against the Champions League. Two finals in three years has culminated in two defeats, both at the hands of city rivals Real Madrid. Less than six months into the job, his real counterpart Zinedine Zidane made it look oh so easy, claiming Europe’s biggest prize from Atletico Madrid’s clutches.
It makes the battle of Madrid a complex one, tactically, psychologically and historically. Simeone may have the tactical edge, but Real are inside the heads of their rivals; they hold the mental advantage. This time it will be different, however. Will it be third time lucky for Atletico? Here are three reasons why Atletico will make it a third final in four seasons at Real’s expense.
The curse of El Pupas
This is the term heart-broken Atletico fans use to refer to their club and it roughly translates from Spanish as ‘the cursed ones,’ based on their inability to beat Real Madrid on the European stage. Two finals and two defeats, one of which came in extra time as Los Blancos stormed to a 4-1 lead, the other, perhaps even more devastating, was decided via penalties. It could have been the sheer magnitude of the occasion that got the better of Atletico, but they can take solace in the fact that this isn’t the final. If anything, they should feel more comfortable playing in front of the home crowd at the Vicente Calderon.
Most teams would quake in their boots at the prospect of visiting the Santiago Bernabeu, particularly in the first leg, but the fact of the matter is that Atletico have an extremely promising record at Real’s home. They’re unbeaten in their last three visits across the Spanish capital, winning two and drawing one. Teams can feel daunted by the intimidating noise of the Bernabeu, but for Atletico it’s almost a home away from home. Their squad is littered with experienced heads, both in terms of European nights and at the Bernabeu. Simeone knows just how to frustrate the crowd with Atletico’s defensive stubbornness, which will play into their hands. The more the crowd grow frustrated, the more panic seeps into Los Blancos’ play, presenting Atletico with more chances on the counter-attack against a short-staffed back four.
The psychology may favour Real, but it would be imprudent to write off a team with a point to prove. Frankly, both Atletico and Simeone have nothing to lose coming into this tie. Potentially, it’s Simeone’s last shot at winning it all with Atletico, which could signal the end of the club at their current stature. Those with nothing to lose are always the most dangerous. Real, however, have it all to lose. The pressure is mounting on Zidane and they’re the favourites to successfully win back-to-back Champions Leagues for the first time in the competition’s history. That alone could be a decisive psychological difference that creeps into the tie.
The power of Antoine Griezmann
For a long time there has been a pact blocking transfers between the two Madrid powerhouses, but rampant speculation has fuelled rumours of Antoine Griezmann’s potential move to Real. If this is a genuine possibility, what better way to prove your value than by knocking out his suitors? Griezmann needs an honour to match his undoubted talent and with a sole Spanish Super Cup to his name, this could be his last chance to achieve something big with Los Colchoneros.
Real Madrid have scored in every game they’ve played this season, including friendlies, so you’d expect them to attack with intent, such has been the impetus of Zidane’s side. Whilst the Frenchman has attempted to reinforce Real’s defence with the introduction of defensive midfielder Casemiro to compliment the likes of Toni Kroos and Luka Modric, Los Blancos are still fragile at the back, going eight games without a clean sheet and keeping one overall in their last 16 games. They struggled to cope with Bayern Munich on the counter in the previous round, with Casemiro lucky not to see a red card, and the story will be the same against Atletico.
It’s Simeone’s style to be pragmatic and put the onus on defence, but Griezmann is a dangerous threat on the break. He’s fast, tricky and his movement is impeccable. Leaving him unmarked or one-on-one with Sergio Ramos or Nacho is a risky strategy. It means Real will have to keep numbers in defence and they won’t be able to attack with the same vigour as they do against the bottom of the table sides in La Liga.
Atletico are best over two legs
The best performances from Simeone’s Atletico generally come over two legs. For instance, see their decimation of the 2012 Europa League knockout stages, winning 4-1, 6-1, 4-2 and 5-2 on their way to final, whilst they navigated tricky two-legged ties on their run to the 2014 Champions League final, keeping things tight away from home and punishing teams upon arrival to the Vicente Calderon. The 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou, followed by a 1-0 victory at home in the 2014 quarter-final is good evidence of this.
A Diego Godin-marshalled defence is complimented by a Griezmann-inspired counter-attack, which makes for extremely successful knockout football, especially considering Atletico’s proclivity for an away goal to keep the tie in the balance. The point to make is that Simeone’s strategy makes Atletico a force to be reckoned with over 180 minutes. Goals boost goal difference, naturally, a key aspect of a league campaign, but defence-first is a more logical plan in knockout football where goal difference is irrelevant in the long-term. Contrast this to the two one-legged finals against Real in which they struggled to hold out defensively; had there been a second leg in 2016 rather than penalties, my money would have been on Atletico.
The key, though, is keeping things in order at the Bernabeu. If Real come out all guns blazing in a high-octane first leg, the tie could be out of Los Colchoneros’ reach by the second leg, but an away goal keeps things in check. Think along the lines of a 1-0 home win, 1-1 or even 0-0. These score-lines all play into Simeone’s strategy across two legs. As long as Atletico can keep the scores down at the Bernabeu, they could well be favourites to progress to the Cardiff’s June 3rd final at the beginning of the return fixture.
By Oli Stein
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